Even with the limits, the latest Important Analytics offers the ideal available studies with which so you can guess the fresh new federal split up rates in the 1990. S. Census Bureau teams demonstrates relationship incidents analysis on the ACS and you may You.S. Vital Statistics (including the DRA try) is equivalent ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Quotes for lots more recent years are not it is possible to since federal bodies discontinued new line of vital statistics into marriages and you can divorces at the county top into the 1996.
To ensure our email address details are strong, we performed a supplemental studies of the restricting the latest 2010 ACS research to only the newest DRA attempt says in which years during the duration of divorce or separation try advertised inside 1990. The outcomes out of this supplemental research are nearly just like those individuals based on the entire country, recommending that the increase in the divorce case speed isn’t an enthusiastic artifact regarding in addition to ACS research out-of most of the states.
Analytical Method
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>
R esults
Once the shown when you look at the Shape 1, the fresh divorce or separation price provides twofold because 1990, ascending of cuatro.9 to help you 10.step one divorced individuals for each step one,000 hitched people. That it development belies the entire trend regarding You.S. divorce case price during this time period, that was fundamentally flat at 19.0 when you look at the 1990 and 17.nine in 2010 (effect perhaps not revealed). This new doubling of one’s rate regarding breakup among center-aged and you may the elderly means a substantial rise in the new amount of people old fifty and you can more mature which sense breakup. Within the 1990, everything 206,007 anyone old 50 and you may elderly had separated, while this year on the 643,152 had divorced. To contextualize it trend, thought that less than 1 in ten individuals whom rosebrides arvostelut divorced when you look at the 1990 is old fifty and earlier compared to more 1 within the cuatro today (influence maybe not shown). Furthermore, and if the new divorce or separation price stays lingering across the next 20 years-an old-fashioned expectation in accordance with the current trend-what amount of individuals old 50 and more mature who experience splitting up in the 2030 perform go up because of the 1/3rd so you’re able to more 828,380 (authors’ formula based on age-particular projected people types in 2030 [ You.S. Census Agency, 2004]), highlighting the new increasing growth in the brand new older population which can can be found across the 2nd two decades.